The Most Likely Scenario of the Presidential Election
The traditional King-Makers – the Pashtuns – are unlikely to give Hamid Karzai an easy victory in the first round because they are divided, disappointed and intimidated: Some dislike Karzai and may vote to Ashraf Ghani and/or other Pashtun candidates; some may not vote for personal reasons (disenchantment and political inertia); and some will not take part in the polling because of the Taliban’s threat.
Despite heavy pay-offs to the minority warlords – Muhaqiq and Dostum - the incumbent would not harvest millions of easy votes from the Hazaras and the Uzbeks.
The North cannot bless Abdullah with a definite victory. A “run-off” is therefore most likely unless Mr. Karzai would act irrationally and rig the results.
Dr Ghani is unlikely to make it to the second round but the race will be between Karzai and Abdullah.
The post-results period will be extremely crucial for the two run-off contenders.
Karzai will use all his compromising tools – including the infamous Chief Executive post - to entice Ghani who would most probably choose to support Karzai than Abdullah.
Karzai will win but he will end up in a self-made Pandora of an already bartered government where he will be hammered by his rival warlords and the Obama administration.
In order to shut Abdullah’s Panjshiri thugs several ministries, governorships and embassies will be offered to Mr. Abdullah albeit in addition to the showing of some teeth from the US.
In the coming five years Ghani will be helped to win the 2014 election and replace Karzai in future.
2 comments:
Perfect analysis, only if Karzai is able to complete his five year term. Taliban insurgencies are on the increase from the south and east, take for instance the events that took place in Logar yesterday, and Abdullah is encouraging his supporters to take up weapons if he wasn’t declared a winner.
The people of Afghanistan are going to look for results, and the government positions that are sold out by Karzai in Advance are not going to produce any, hence, people are going to be disenchanted and turn against the government.
But let's ask ourselves the question of who should replace Mr Karzi? Abdullah? I don't think so, looking back at the debate aired by Tolo TV a few days ago, he seemed very ordinary in front of Mr Ashraf Ghani, he only repeated what Mr Ghani was saying, and in terms of economical policy they didn't even bother to ask him the question, because he doesn't have any.
What I like about Mr Ghani, is that he is an advance thinker, and I am sure he has spent weeks and months studying the needs of Afghanistan, to prepare his policy.
Although I am not sure he is going to win this time around, but he is going to be the one heavy weight contender everyone is going to try and beat.
Siddiq
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