What is Khalilzad up to in Kabul?
Washington’s main Afghan troubleshooter, Zalmai Khalilzad, has come to Kabul to help end the political chaos stemming from the fraudulent elections process. On Wednesday Khalilzad briefly appeared on a local TV with a blunt warning: “Afghanistan is at a very dangerous juncture and everyone must help to take it out of the peril.”
Mr. Khalilzad has low-profile style, does not confide at journalists and prefers to talk vaguely about Afghan politics.
After George W. Bush the second American who wields extensive influence over Hamid Karzai is Mr. Khalilzad. He used to mentor Karzai in 2002-2005 on day-to-day governance but relations between the two have cooled over the past two years due to a lot of misinformation and gossiping Mr. Karzai regularly receives in his Arg. Moreover the opportunist Karzai no more needs Khalilzad to guide and back him through Washington corridors.
The electoral crisis has already created a lot of frustrations everywhere in the world. Karzai’s credibility and legitimacy have been irretrievably damaged by his rigging and abusing of the electoral process.
A Karzai winning in the run-off would have been much liked inside and outside Afghanistan than a Karzai who has teamed with notorious warlords and is winning in an extremely fraudulent first round.
The electoral crisis has spilled out of control because of mistakes made by Karzai, by UNAMA and by the man President Obama has appointed for Afghanistan-Pakistan.
I have two speculations about Khalilzad’s mission to Kabul.
A) Khalilzad will try to convince Karzai to go for a run-off in order to appease widespread criticisms. The run-off scenario is favored by an increasingly skeptic Obama who desperately seeks an acceptable level of legitimacy in his Afghan partner. The run-off diplomacy was first tried by Richard Holbrooke in August but was rebuffed by an antagonized Karzai.
B) Khalilzad will forge power-sharing between Karzai and Abdullah in which Karzai will win in the first round and Abdullah will have several ministries. Khalilzad has talked about a “new, strong government”.
The first scenario is good and will be more salable to Afghans. But if Washington has commissioned Khalilzad to make another compromised-based Afghan government it will only replicate the mistakes made at the Transitional Arrangements made in Bonn in December 2001.
Washington’s main Afghan troubleshooter, Zalmai Khalilzad, has come to Kabul to help end the political chaos stemming from the fraudulent elections process. On Wednesday Khalilzad briefly appeared on a local TV with a blunt warning: “Afghanistan is at a very dangerous juncture and everyone must help to take it out of the peril.”
Mr. Khalilzad has low-profile style, does not confide at journalists and prefers to talk vaguely about Afghan politics.
After George W. Bush the second American who wields extensive influence over Hamid Karzai is Mr. Khalilzad. He used to mentor Karzai in 2002-2005 on day-to-day governance but relations between the two have cooled over the past two years due to a lot of misinformation and gossiping Mr. Karzai regularly receives in his Arg. Moreover the opportunist Karzai no more needs Khalilzad to guide and back him through Washington corridors.
The electoral crisis has already created a lot of frustrations everywhere in the world. Karzai’s credibility and legitimacy have been irretrievably damaged by his rigging and abusing of the electoral process.
A Karzai winning in the run-off would have been much liked inside and outside Afghanistan than a Karzai who has teamed with notorious warlords and is winning in an extremely fraudulent first round.
The electoral crisis has spilled out of control because of mistakes made by Karzai, by UNAMA and by the man President Obama has appointed for Afghanistan-Pakistan.
I have two speculations about Khalilzad’s mission to Kabul.
A) Khalilzad will try to convince Karzai to go for a run-off in order to appease widespread criticisms. The run-off scenario is favored by an increasingly skeptic Obama who desperately seeks an acceptable level of legitimacy in his Afghan partner. The run-off diplomacy was first tried by Richard Holbrooke in August but was rebuffed by an antagonized Karzai.
B) Khalilzad will forge power-sharing between Karzai and Abdullah in which Karzai will win in the first round and Abdullah will have several ministries. Khalilzad has talked about a “new, strong government”.
The first scenario is good and will be more salable to Afghans. But if Washington has commissioned Khalilzad to make another compromised-based Afghan government it will only replicate the mistakes made at the Transitional Arrangements made in Bonn in December 2001.
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